Ravens vs Eagles — Week 15, 2016
The Ravens took over leading 27-20 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 27, Eagles 26. Ravens won 27-26 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 12, 2:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.0% for Ravens. Our model starts at 94.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:18) 28-T.West right guard to BAL 10 for -2 yards (96-B.Logan).
- (2:00) 28-T.West right guard to BAL 11 for 1 yard (96-B.Logan; 55-B.Graham).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon up the middle to BAL 12 for 1 yard (91-F.Cox; 55-B.Graham).
- (1:50) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to PHI 41, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.05 pts |
| Quick out | -1.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.46 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| QB keep | -1.76 pts |
| Play action | -3.08 pts |
| Curl route | -3.44 pts |
| End-around | -5.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.40 pts |
| Deep post | -9.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.