Panthers vs Commanders — Week 15, 2016
The Panthers took over leading 23-15 with 3:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 26, Commanders 15. Panthers won 26-15 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 30, 3:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.6% for Panthers. Our model starts at 94.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:44) 28-J.Stewart right end to WAS 36 for 34 yards (54-M.Foster).
- (2:54) 28-J.Stewart up the middle to WAS 33 for 3 yards (54-M.Foster).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 35-M.Tolbert right tackle to WAS 23 for 10 yards (24-J.Norman; 99-R.Jean Francois).
- (2:29) 28-J.Stewart left end to WAS 23 for no gain (54-M.Foster).
- (2:24) 61-D.Yankey reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart right tackle to WAS 22 for 1 yard (26-B.Breeland; 90-E.Hood).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right guard to WAS 22 for no gain (93-T.Murphy; 54-M.Foster).
- (1:12) 9-G.Gano 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.73 pts |
| Quick out | -1.11 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| QB keep | -1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.87 pts |
| Curl route | -3.23 pts |
| End-around | -5.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.29 pts |
| Deep post | -9.00 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.