Texans vs Lions — Week 8, 2016
The Texans took over leading 20-13 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at the Lions 44, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Texans 20, Lions 13. Texans won 20-13 — the drive time expired.
Texans ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Lions territory, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.1% for Texans. Our model starts at 96.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle to DET 41 for 3 yards (27-G.Quin, 99-K.Thornton).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller right guard to DET 31 for 10 yards (24-N.Lawson; 27-G.Quin).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle to DET 25 for 6 yards (52-A.Williams).
- (2:37) 26-L.Miller left guard to DET 19 for 6 yards (57-J.Bynes).
- (2:00) 17-B.Osweiler kneels to DET 20 for -1 yards.
- (1:19) 17-B.Osweiler kneels to DET 21 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 17-B.Osweiler kneels to DET 22 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.82 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.82 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.83 pts |
| Quick out | -1.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.22 pts |
| QB keep | -1.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -3.03 pts |
| Curl route | -3.43 pts |
| End-around | -5.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.48 pts |
| Deep post | -9.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.