Packers vs Giants — Week 5, 2016
The Packers took over leading 23-16 with 2:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Packers 23, Giants 16. Packers won 23-16 — the drive time expired.
Packers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 35, 2:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.4% for Packers. Our model starts at 95.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:48) 78-J.Spriggs reported in as eligible. 44-J.Starks right end to GB 32 for -3 yards (54-O.Vernon).
- (2:41) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 44-J.Starks to GB 34 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 35. 44-J.Starks to GB 35 for no gain (91-K.Sheppard; 59-D.Kennard).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb to GB 48 for 13 yards (21-L.Collins). GB-18-R.Cobb was injured during the play.
- (2:00) 12-A.Rodgers kneels to GB 47 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 12-A.Rodgers kneels to GB 46 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 12-A.Rodgers kneels to GB 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.14 pts |
| QB keep | -1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Play action | -2.87 pts |
| Curl route | -3.23 pts |
| End-around | -5.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.31 pts |
| Deep post | -9.05 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.