Bills vs Jaguars — Week 12, 2016
The Bills took over leading 28-21 with 3:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Bills 28, Jaguars 21. Bills won 28-21 — the drive time expired.
Bills ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 42, 3:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.8% for Bills. Our model starts at 94.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:25) One-yard difference on change of possession. Direct snap to L.McCoy (T.Taylor at WR). (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right tackle to BUF 45 for 3 yards (50-T.Smith).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right end to BUF 45 for no gain (44-M.Jack). Pitch-back from T.Taylor.
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 85-C.Clay to JAX 48 for 7 yards (37-J.Cyprien). Flat pass, caught at 50. Measurement = first down.
- (2:25) 31-J.Williams up the middle to JAX 47 for 1 yard (51-P.Posluszny, 90-M.Jackson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor right guard to JAX 45 for 2 yards (50-T.Smith).
- (1:20) 25-L.McCoy left end to JAX 36 for 9 yards (39-T.Gipson).
- (:39) 5-T.Taylor kneels to JAX 37 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.13 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.12 pts |
| QB keep | -1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -2.82 pts |
| Curl route | -3.17 pts |
| End-around | -5.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.24 pts |
| Deep post | -8.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.08 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.