Broncos vs Chargers — Week 8, 2016
The Broncos took over leading 27-19 with 2:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 27, Chargers 19. Broncos won 27-19 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 2, 2:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.5% for Broncos. Our model starts at 95.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:36) 23-D.Booker up the middle to DEN 1 for -1 yards (51-K.Emanuel).
- (2:31) 23-D.Booker up the middle to DEN 3 for 2 yards (51-K.Emanuel). Penalty on DEN-73-R.Okung, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep left to 88-D.Thomas.
- (2:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 68 yards to LAC 29, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 33 for 4 yards (50-Z.Anderson, 57-D.Watson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.96 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.96 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.45 pts |
| Quick out | -1.45 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| QB keep | -1.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.97 pts |
| Play action | -3.36 pts |
| Curl route | -3.86 pts |
| End-around | -5.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.78 pts |
| Deep post | -9.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.