Saints vs Cardinals — Week 15, 2016
The Saints took over leading 48-41 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 48, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Saints 48, Cardinals 41. Saints won 48-41 — the drive time expired.
Saints ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 2:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.3% for Saints. Our model starts at 96.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:19) 22-M.Ingram up the middle to ARI 46 for 6 yards (51-K.Minter).
- (2:14) 78-L.Turner reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram up the middle to ARI 45 for 1 yard (93-C.Campbell).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 82-C.Fleener to ARI 39 for 6 yards (22-T.Jefferson).
- (1:17) 9-D.Brees kneels to ARI 40 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 9-D.Brees kneels to ARI 41 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.83 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.81 pts |
| Quick out | -1.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.51 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -3.00 pts |
| Curl route | -3.39 pts |
| End-around | -5.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.46 pts |
| Deep post | -9.27 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.