Falcons vs Raiders — Week 2, 2016
The Falcons took over leading 35-28 with 2:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 35, Raiders 28. Falcons won 35-28 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 13, 2:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.7% for Falcons. Our model starts at 95.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:10) 24-D.Freeman up the middle to ATL 12 for -1 yards (21-S.Smith).
- (2:04) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel to ATL 20 for 8 yards (27-R.Nelson).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 35 for 15 yards (25-D.Hayden).
- (1:49) 26-T.Coleman up the middle to ATL 37 for 2 yards (95-J.Ward).
- (1:40) 26-T.Coleman up the middle to ATL 36 for -1 yards (51-B.Irvin).
- (:56) 26-T.Coleman up the middle to ATL 40 for 4 yards (57-C.James, 39-K.McGill).
- (:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.09 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.01 pts |
| Quick out | -1.40 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.41 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.66 pts |
| QB keep | -1.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Play action | -3.07 pts |
| Curl route | -3.44 pts |
| End-around | -5.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.42 pts |
| Deep post | -9.10 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.