Steelers vs Bengals — Week 2, 2016
The Steelers took over leading 24-16 with 3:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 24, Bengals 16. Steelers won 24-16 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.8% for Steelers. Our model starts at 94.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:25) 34-D.Williams up the middle to PIT 28 for 3 yards (43-G.Iloka).
- (3:20) 34-D.Williams up the middle to PIT 29 for 1 yard (94-D.Peko; 57-V.Rey).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 84-A.Brown. Coverage 24-Jones.
- (3:12) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CIN 13, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to CIN 25 for 12 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 21-R.Golden).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.87 pts |
| Curl route | -3.22 pts |
| End-around | -5.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.29 pts |
| Deep post | -9.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.