Jaguars vs Texans — Week 15, 2016
The Jaguars took over trailing 21-20 with 2:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 20, Texans 21. Texans won 21-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jaguars ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 2:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.1% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 48.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 81-B.Walters to JAX 45 for 15 yards (29-A.Hal).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 15-A.Robinson.
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 15-A.Robinson.
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short right to 24-T.Yeldon (35-E.Pleasant).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep middle to 15-A.Robinson [94-A.Smith].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.46 pts |
| Curl route | +1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.28 pts |
| QB keep | +1.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.62 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.31 pts |
| Deep post | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| End-around | -2.26 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.