Giants vs Commanders — Week 3, 2016
The Giants took over trailing 29-27 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Giants 27, Commanders 29. Commanders won 29-27 — the drive turnover.
Giants ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.9% for Giants. Our model starts at 37.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 84-L.Donnell to NYG 31 for 6 yards (30-D.Bruton).
- (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 34-S.Vereen.
- (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 80-V.Cruz to NYG 39 for 18 yards (47-Q.Dunbar).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 34-S.Vereen INTERCEPTED by 36-S.Cravens at NYG 43. 36-S.Cravens to NYG 41 for 2 yards (34-S.Vereen).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.75 pts |
| QB keep | +1.57 pts |
| Play action | +1.06 pts |
| Quick out | +0.87 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.74 pts |
| Deep post | +0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.78 pts |
| End-around | -1.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.13 pts |
| Spike it | -2.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.