Colts vs Chargers — Week 3, 2016
The Colts took over trailing 22-20 with 2:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Colts 26, Chargers 22. Colts won 26-22 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 17, 2:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 40.8% for Colts. Our model starts at 35.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 15-P.Dorsett to IND 20 for 3 yards (22-J.Verrett).
- (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete deep right to 80-C.Rogers [94-C.Liuget].
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short middle to 34-J.Ferguson (23-D.McCoil).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton to IND 28 for 8 yards (24-B.Flowers). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 34-J.Ferguson to IND 37 for 9 yards (52-D.Perryman). LAC-24-B.Flowers was injured during the play.
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-A.Luck pass to 13-T.Hilton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.59 pts |
| QB keep | +0.33 pts |
| Play action | +0.09 pts |
| Quick out | -0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.30 pts |
| Deep post | -0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.91 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.11 pts |
| Outside run | -1.15 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.26 pts |
| Inside run | -1.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.42 pts |
| End-around | -2.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.