Saints vs Panthers — Week 6, 2016
The Saints took over tied at 38 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 41, Panthers 38. Saints won 41-38 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.2% for Saints. Our model starts at 55.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 20 for -5 yards (sack split by 95-C.Johnson and 97-M.Addison).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 83-W.Snead to NO 26 for 6 yards (58-T.Davis; 99-K.Short).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 38-T.Cadet pushed ob at NO 35 for 9 yards (21-T.Williams). Pass 4, YAC 5
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 82-C.Fleener to NO 39 for 4 yards (54-S.Thompson) [99-K.Short]. Pass 3, YAC 1
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas pushed ob at NO 46 for 7 yards (33-T.Boston). Pass 6, YAC 1
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 38-T.Cadet to CAR 47 for 7 yards (58-T.Davis). Pass 6, YAC 1
- (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 38-T.Cadet pushed ob at CAR 43 for 4 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Pass 1, YAC 3
- (:52) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 82-C.Fleener to CAR 40 for 3 yards (58-T.Davis). Pass 3, YAC 0
- (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short middle to 83-W.Snead (54-S.Thompson).
- (:26) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 10-B.Cooks to CAR 34 for 6 yards (31-Z.Sanchez; 95-C.Johnson). Pass -4, YAC 10
- (:16) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.32 pts |
| QB keep | +1.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.04 pts |
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Quick out | +0.50 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| Play action | +0.16 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.98 pts |
| End-around | -2.48 pts |
| Deep post | -2.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.99 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.