Cowboys vs Commanders — Week 12, 2016
The Cowboys took over leading 31-26 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at the Commanders 47, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 31, Commanders 26. Cowboys won 31-26 — the drive time expired.
Cowboys ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.7% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 94.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) 21-E.Elliott right guard to WAS 44 for 3 yards (99-R.Jean Francois; 29-D.Ihenacho).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 11-C.Beasley to WAS 36 for 8 yards (29-D.Ihenacho). pass complete on a bubble screen.
- (1:00) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to WAS 34 for 2 yards (91-R.Kerrigan).
- (:55) 4-D.Prescott kneels to WAS 35 for -1 yards.
- (:21) 4-D.Prescott kneels to WAS 36 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.97 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.97 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -1.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.78 pts |
| Curl route | -3.11 pts |
| End-around | -5.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.21 pts |
| Deep post | -8.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.