Jets vs 49ers — Week 14, 2016
The Jets took over trailing 17-14 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 1 timeout in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Jets 17, 49ers 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive scored.
Jets ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 35, 2:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.2% for Jets. Our model starts at 33.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass short right to 81-Q.Enunwa pushed ob at NYJ 44 for 9 yards (29-J.Tartt). Caught at NYJ 36; 8-yds YAC
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell right tackle to SF 48 for 8 yards (99-D.Buckner).
- (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass short left to 11-R.Anderson to SF 39 for 9 yards (26-T.Brock, 25-J.Ward). Caught at SF 40 1-yd YAC
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell right guard to SF 30 for 9 yards (29-J.Tartt).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 34-B.Wilds up the middle to SF 33 for 2 yards (99-D.Buckner).
- (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Petty scrambles right end pushed ob at SF 32 for 1 yard (25-J.Ward).
- (:48) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass incomplete deep left to 11-R.Anderson.
- (:43) 2-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.52 pts |
| QB keep | +1.36 pts |
| Play action | +0.90 pts |
| Quick out | +0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.60 pts |
| Deep post | +0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.66 pts |
| End-around | -1.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.95 pts |
| Spike it | -2.66 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.