Dolphins vs Chargers — Week 10, 2016
The Dolphins took over trailing 24-21 with 4:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 31, Chargers 24. Dolphins won 31-24 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.2% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 32.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-D.Parker to LAC 19 for 56 yards (31-A.Phillips) [94-C.Liuget]. PENALTY on LAC-94-C.Liuget, Roughing the Passer, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 19.
- (3:54) 23-J.Ajayi left end to LAC 9 for 1 yard (56-K.Toomer).
- (3:11) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Sims.
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Parker (42-T.Williams).
- (3:01) 3-A.Franks 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.99 pts |
| QB keep | +0.95 pts |
| Play action | +0.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep post | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| End-around | -1.83 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.39 pts |
| Spike it | -2.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.