Bears vs Lions — Week 14, 2016
The Bears took over trailing 20-17 with 3:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Bears 17, Lions 20. Lions won 20-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bears ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.7% for Bears. Our model starts at 32.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:17) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete short right to 24-J.Howard (57-J.Bynes).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short left to 14-D.Thompson to CHI 29 for 4 yards (32-T.Wilson, 94-E.Ansah).
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short middle to 85-D.Brown to CHI 36 for 7 yards (57-J.Bynes).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short right to 85-D.Brown pushed ob at CHI 40 for 4 yards (32-T.Wilson).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short middle to 11-J.Bellamy to CHI 46 for 6 yards (38-A.Barnes) [61-K.Hyder].
- (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete short middle to 81-C.Meredith [38-A.Barnes].
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short right to 85-D.Brown to DET 46 for 8 yards (24-N.Lawson; 57-J.Bynes).
- (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Langford up the middle to DET 43 for 3 yards (61-K.Hyder).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short left to 85-D.Brown ran ob at CHI 42 for 5 yards (38-A.Barnes).
- (:31) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Thompson (24-N.Lawson).
- (:25) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short middle to 81-C.Meredith to DET 44 for 14 yards (32-T.Wilson).
- (:19) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Bellamy (23-D.Slay).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.24 pts |
| QB keep | +1.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.65 pts |
| Quick out | +0.55 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.43 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Deep post | +0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.82 pts |
| End-around | -1.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.13 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.