Saints vs Buccaneers — Week 14, 2016
The Saints took over trailing 16-11 with 2:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 3, 1 timeout in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 11, Buccaneers 16. Buccaneers won 16-11 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Saints ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 3, 2:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.7% for Saints. Our model starts at 13.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 83-W.Snead to NO 20 for 17 yards (37-K.Tandy).
- (1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 16-B.Coleman to NO 36 for 16 yards (28-V.Hargreaves) [93-G.McCoy].
- (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 38-T.Cadet pushed ob at NO 41 for 5 yards (54-L.David) [91-R.Ayers].
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep middle to 10-B.Cooks (37-K.Tandy).
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 38-T.Cadet to NO 45 for 4 yards (30-B.McDougald).
- (:57) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left intended for 83-W.Snead INTERCEPTED by 37-K.Tandy at NO 47. 37-K.Tandy to NO 47 for no gain (83-W.Snead).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.76 pts), and the weakest was Receiver pass (-2.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.76 pts |
| Deep post | -0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.93 pts |
| Quick out | -0.98 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.00 pts |
| QB keep | -1.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.24 pts |
| Curl route | -1.35 pts |
| Spike it | -1.40 pts |
| Play action | -1.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.69 pts |
| Outside run | -1.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.82 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.90 pts |
| End-around | -2.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.