Jaguars vs Broncos — Week 13, 2016
The Jaguars took over trailing 17-10 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 10, Broncos 20. Broncos won 20-10 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 29, 2:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.0% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 11.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 24-T.Yeldon (93-J.Crick).
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 15-A.Robinson.
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 81-B.Walters to JAX 33 for 4 yards (43-T.Ward) [58-V.Miller].
- (2:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.98 pts |
| Deep post | +0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.62 pts |
| QB keep | +0.51 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.22 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| End-around | -1.04 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Spike it | -1.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.