Texans vs Raiders — Week 11, 2016
The Texans took over trailing 27-20 with 4:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Texans 20, Raiders 27. Raiders won 27-20 — the drive turned it over.
Texans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.3% for Texans. Our model starts at 12.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:43) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 87-C.Fiedorowicz pushed ob at HOU 31 for 6 yards (53-M.Smith).
- (4:38) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 87-C.Fiedorowicz.
- (4:32) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 39 for 8 yards (25-D.Hayden).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller right tackle to HOU 44 for 5 yards (51-B.Irvin).
- (3:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler sacked at HOU 40 for -4 yards (51-B.Irvin). Penalty on HOU-74-C.Clark, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 44 for 4 yards (25-D.Hayden).
- (3:13) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to LV 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 38-T.Carrie to LV 20 for 15 yards (20-D.Jones).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.74 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.51 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.51 pts |
| QB keep | +0.44 pts |
| Deep post | +0.36 pts |
| Play action | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.00 pts |
| End-around | -1.02 pts |
| Spike it | -1.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.