Falcons vs Eagles — Week 10, 2016
The Falcons took over trailing 21-15 with 3:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 15, Eagles 24. Eagles won 24-15 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Falcons ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 35, 3:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.6% for Falcons. Our model starts at 19.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:55) 24-D.Freeman up the middle to ATL 41 for 6 yards (58-J.Hicks).
- (3:22) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 18-T.Gabriel (21-L.McKelvin).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman to ATL 40 for 9 yards (53-N.Bradham).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.18 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.86 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.84 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Deep post | +0.55 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.01 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| End-around | -1.37 pts |
| Spike it | -1.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.