Bears vs Giants — Week 11, 2016
The Bears took over trailing 22-16 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Bears 16, Giants 22. Giants won 22-16 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.7% for Bears. Our model starts at 18.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler right end to CHI 33 for 3 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right.
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 24-J.Howard (57-K.Robinson) [58-O.Odighizuwa].
- (3:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to NYG 23, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.95 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.95 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.69 pts |
| QB keep | +0.61 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Deep post | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.03 pts |
| Inside run | -1.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| End-around | -1.28 pts |
| Spike it | -1.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.