Panthers vs Saints — Week 11, 2016
The Panthers took over leading 23-20 with 2:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 23, Saints 20. Panthers won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 15, 2:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.8% for Panthers. Our model starts at 77.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:47) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 28-J.Stewart.
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right tackle to CAR 15 for no gain (54-N.Stupar).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 13-K.Benjamin to CAR 33 for 18 yards (24-S.Moore).
- (2:26) 28-J.Stewart up the middle to CAR 35 for 2 yards (54-N.Stupar; 98-S.Rankins).
- (2:00) 35-M.Tolbert up the middle to CAR 35 for no gain (32-K.Vaccaro; 94-C.Jordan).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 43-F.Whittaker right end to CAR 35 for no gain (52-C.Robertson; 59-D.Ellerbe).
- (:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 24 for 11 yards (52-J.Norris; 54-S.Thompson). PENALTY on NO-54-N.Stupar, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 24.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.91 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.91 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.72 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.88 pts |
| QB keep | -0.91 pts |
| Quick out | -1.06 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| Curl route | -1.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.83 pts |
| Play action | -1.88 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.98 pts |
| End-around | -4.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.63 pts |
| Deep post | -6.22 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.10 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.