Buccaneers vs Chiefs — Week 11, 2016
The Buccaneers took over leading 19-17 with 2:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 19, Chiefs 17. Buccaneers won 19-17 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 23, 2:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.8% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 73.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:21) 22-D.Martin up the middle to TB 25 for 2 yards (51-F.Zombo).
- (2:16) 22-D.Martin up the middle to TB 30 for 5 yards (99-R.Nunez-Roches; 56-D.Johnson).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans to TB 44 for 14 yards (27-K.Acker).
- (2:00) 22-D.Martin up the middle to TB 43 for -1 yards (53-R.Wilson).
- (1:55) 22-D.Martin up the middle to TB 46 for 3 yards (99-R.Nunez-Roches).
- (1:08) 22-D.Martin up the middle to TB 49 for 3 yards (53-R.Wilson).
- (:22) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to KC 7, Center-48-A.DePaola. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 27 for 20 yards (37-K.Tandy).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.83 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Outside run | +0.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.11 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Curl route | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Play action | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.04 pts |
| End-around | -3.32 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.61 pts |
| Deep post | -5.09 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.