Broncos vs Colts — Week 2, 2016
The Broncos took over leading 23-20 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 34, Colts 20. Broncos won 34-20 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.2% for Broncos. Our model starts at 75.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:56) 13-T.Siemian pass deep middle to 85-V.Green to IND 36 for 18 yards (93-E.Walden).
- (3:15) 22-C.Anderson left tackle to IND 37 for -1 yards (94-Z.Kerr).
- (3:09) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 10-E.Sanders.
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 88-D.Thomas to IND 26 for 11 yards (31-A.Cromartie).
- (2:22) 22-C.Anderson up the middle to IND 25 for 1 yard (54-D.Parry).
- (2:18) 22-C.Anderson right tackle to IND 17 for 13 yards (30-R.Melvin).
- (2:00) 22-C.Anderson left guard to IND 17 for no gain (52-D.Jackson).
- (1:54) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.17 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.34 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| QB keep | -0.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.22 pts |
| Quick out | -0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.37 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Curl route | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Play action | -1.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.62 pts |
| End-around | -3.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.23 pts |
| Deep post | -5.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.17 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.