Cowboys vs Giants — Week 14, 2016
The Cowboys took over trailing 10-7 with 4:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 7, Giants 10. Giants won 10-7 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 11, 4:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.8% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 32.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:40) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to DAL 13 for 2 yards (54-O.Vernon).
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-D.Bryant [78-R.Okwara].
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 83-T.Williams to DAL 20 for 7 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
- (3:14) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to NYG 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 33 for 5 yards (52-A.Gachkar, 16-V.Mayle).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Pull RPO (-0.92 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Pull RPO | -0.92 pts |
| Curl route | -0.98 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.14 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.20 pts |
| Play action | -1.51 pts |
| QB keep | -1.52 pts |
| Quick out | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Deep post | -1.88 pts |
| Outside run | -1.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.03 pts |
| Inside run | -2.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.40 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.47 pts |
| End-around | -3.49 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.