Saints vs Chargers — Week 4, 2016
The Saints took over trailing 34-28 with 4:42 left, 1st & 10 at the Chargers 31, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 35, Chargers 34. Saints won 35-34 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Chargers territory, 4:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.4% for Saints. Our model starts at 30.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:42) 22-M.Ingram right guard to LAC 23 for 8 yards (53-J.Perry).
- (4:04) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short right to 82-C.Fleener (20-D.Lowery).
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 87-T.Lewis to LAC 13 for 10 yards (40-P.Desir).
- (3:20) 22-M.Ingram up the middle to LAC 10 for 3 yards (94-C.Liuget).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 16-B.Coleman to LAC 4 for 6 yards (26-C.Hayward).
- (2:13) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 29-J.Kuhn to LAC 1 for 3 yards (97-J.Attaochu).
- (2:00) 29-J.Kuhn right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.25 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.25 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.99 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Deep post | -0.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| End-around | -1.53 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.13 pts |
| Field goal | -2.17 pts |
| Spike it | -2.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.