Cardinals vs Rams — Week 4, 2016
The Cardinals took over trailing 17-13 with 2:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 13, Rams 17. Rams won 17-13 — the drive turnover.
Cardinals ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 15, 2:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.4% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 21.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:32) ARI #5-Stanton in at QB. (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass short right to 13-Ja.Brown to ARI 22 for 7 yards (26-M.Barron) [99-A.Donald].
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass incomplete short right to 12-Jo.Brown [99-A.Donald].
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 40 for 13 yards (26-M.Barron).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass incomplete short left to 13-Ja.Brown.
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass deep middle intended for 15-M.Floyd INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Barron at LA 44. 26-M.Barron to LA 45 for 1 yard.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.45 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.45 pts |
| Deep post | +0.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.19 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.09 pts |
| Play action | -0.29 pts |
| QB keep | -0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -0.66 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.72 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.94 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.68 pts |
| Outside run | -1.72 pts |
| Spike it | -2.05 pts |
| Inside run | -2.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.30 pts |
| End-around | -2.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.