Packers vs Vikings — Week 2, 2016
The Packers took over trailing 17-14 with 4:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Packers 14, Vikings 17. Vikings won 17-14 — the drive turnover.
Packers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 9, 4:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.1% for Packers. Our model starts at 32.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:38) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Cook.
- (4:32) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Cook to GB 12 for 3 yards (26-T.Waynes).
- (3:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb to GB 26 for 14 yards (24-C.Munnerlyn).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles ran ob at GB 36 for 10 yards (34-A.Sendejo).
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 18-R.Cobb (24-C.Munnerlyn).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams to GB 49 for 13 yards (26-T.Waynes).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 45 for -4 yards (98-L.Joseph).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Nelson (23-T.Newman).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 26-T.Waynes at MIN 41. 26-T.Waynes pushed ob at MIN 45 for 4 yards (17-D.Adams).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.29 pts |
| Curl route | -1.39 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.43 pts |
| QB keep | -1.53 pts |
| Quick out | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Play action | -1.89 pts |
| Outside run | -1.99 pts |
| Inside run | -2.06 pts |
| Deep post | -2.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
| End-around | -3.49 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.