Lions vs Commanders — Week 7, 2016
The Lions took over trailing 17-13 with 1:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Lions 20, Commanders 17. Lions won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.1% for Lions. Our model starts at 19.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 11-M.Jones to DET 48 for 23 yards (47-Q.Dunbar).
- (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to WAS 38 for 14 yards (51-W.Compton).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-A.Roberts to WAS 18 for 20 yards (36-S.Cravens, 39-D.Whitner).
- (:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 15-G.Tate (20-G.Toler).
- (:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 15-G.Tate [36-S.Cravens].
- (:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-A.Boldin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.96 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.96 pts |
| Deep post | +1.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.30 pts |
| QB keep | +1.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.98 pts |
| Quick out | +0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.64 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.56 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.21 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.98 pts |
| Inside run | -1.48 pts |
| End-around | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| Spike it | -1.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.