Seahawks vs Dolphins — Week 1, 2016
The Seahawks took over trailing 10-6 with 4:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 12, Dolphins 10. Seahawks won 12-10 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.9% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 26.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 82-L.Willson.
- (4:01) (Shotgun) 32-C.Michael up the middle to SEA 33 for 8 yards (47-K.Alonso; 20-R.Jones).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 32-C.Michael left end to SEA 34 for 1 yard (47-K.Alonso). MIA-97-J.Phillips was injured during the play.
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 32-C.Michael up the middle to SEA 41 for 7 yards (47-K.Alonso).
- (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 15-J.Kearse to SEA 47 for 6 yards (47-K.Alonso; 20-R.Jones).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 32-C.Michael [47-K.Alonso].
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 15-J.Kearse (93-N.Suh).
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin ran ob at MIA 31 for 22 yards (24-I.Abdul-Quddus).
- (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left tackle to MIA 27 for 4 yards (53-J.Jenkins).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-J.Graham to MIA 16 for 11 yards (41-B.Maxwell).
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to MIA 11 for 5 yards (25-X.Howard).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 89-D.Baldwin to MIA 2 for 9 yards (20-R.Jones; 25-X.Howard).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.92 pts |
| QB keep | +0.85 pts |
| Play action | +0.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Deep post | +0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.53 pts |
| End-around | -1.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.