Dolphins vs Cardinals — Week 14, 2016
The Dolphins took over tied at 23 with 3:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 26, Cardinals 23. Dolphins won 26-23 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.8% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 57.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:01) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Parker (26-B.Williams).
- (2:58) 23-J.Ajayi right guard to MIA 26 for 1 yard (54-S.Moore).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short middle to 14-J.Landry to MIA 32 for 6 yards (21-P.Peterson) [93-C.Campbell].
- (2:04) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to ARI 24, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 25 for 1 yard (46-N.Hewitt).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.27 pts |
| QB keep | +1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.97 pts |
| Curl route | +0.78 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.32 pts |
| Outside run | +0.15 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.14 pts |
| Play action | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.75 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.11 pts |
| End-around | -2.58 pts |
| Deep post | -2.70 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.