Giants vs Saints — Week 2, 2016
The Giants took over tied at 13 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Giants 16, Saints 13. Giants won 16-13 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.8% for Giants. Our model starts at 57.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 34-S.Vereen up the middle to NYG 34 for 9 yards (90-N.Fairley).
- (2:22) 34-S.Vereen right tackle to NYG 45 for -2 yards (52-C.Robertson).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 80-V.Cruz pushed ob at NO 44 for 11 yards (46-K.Crawley).
- (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to NO 38 for 6 yards (32-K.Vaccaro).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 34-S.Vereen up the middle to NO 36 for 2 yards (56-M.Mauti).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 13-O.Beckham.
- (1:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 80-V.Cruz to NO 2 for 34 yards (46-K.Crawley).
- (1:32) 10-E.Manning kneels to NO 3 for -1 yards.
- (:51) 10-E.Manning kneels to NO 4 for -1 yards.
- (:10) 10-E.Manning kneels to NO 5 for -1 yards.
- (:02) 3-J.Brown 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. Penalty on NO-90-N.Fairley, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.30 pts |
| QB keep | +1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.01 pts |
| Curl route | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.34 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.11 pts |
| Play action | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.08 pts |
| End-around | -2.57 pts |
| Deep post | -2.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.