Dolphins vs Browns — Week 3, 2016
The Dolphins took over tied at 24 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 24, Browns 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.5% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 55.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 14-J.Landry (33-J.Poyer).
- (3:06) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-K.Stills to MIA 26 for 1 yard (58-C.Kirksey).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Parker.
- (2:17) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to CLE 26, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 33-J.Poyer.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.24 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.24 pts |
| QB keep | +1.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.95 pts |
| Curl route | +0.78 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.30 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.19 pts |
| Outside run | +0.16 pts |
| Play action | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.05 pts |
| End-around | -2.51 pts |
| Deep post | -2.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.