Seahawks vs Rams — Week 2, 2016
The Seahawks took over trailing 9-3 with 1:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 3, Rams 9. Rams won 9-3 — the drive turnover.
Seahawks ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 12, 1:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.2% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 9.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett to LA 35 for 53 yards (32-T.Hill). LA-32-T.Hill was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 32-C.Michael [99-A.Donald].
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 89-D.Baldwin to LA 35 for 5 yards (26-M.Barron).
- (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 32-C.Michael to LA 27 for 8 yards (52-A.Ogletree). FUMBLES (52-A.Ogletree), RECOVERED by LA-52-A.Ogletree at LA 29. 52-A.Ogletree to LA 29 for no gain (73-J.Webb).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.23 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.23 pts |
| Curl route | -0.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.46 pts |
| Play action | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| QB keep | -0.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.75 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.79 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.93 pts |
| Spike it | -1.01 pts |
| Inside run | -1.33 pts |
| Outside run | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| End-around | -1.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.