Buccaneers vs Chargers — Week 13, 2016
The Buccaneers took over leading 28-21 with 2:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 28, Chargers 21. Buccaneers won 28-21 — the drive time expired.
Buccaneers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 2:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.1% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 93.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:56) 32-J.Rodgers up the middle to TB 27 for 7 yards (29-C.Mager, 56-K.Toomer).
- (2:50) 32-J.Rodgers up the middle to TB 29 for 2 yards (51-K.Emanuel).
- (2:05) 32-J.Rodgers up the middle to TB 31 for 2 yards (51-K.Emanuel).
- (2:00) 3-J.Winston kneels to TB 29 for -2 yards.
- (1:19) 3-J.Winston kneels to TB 28 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 3-J.Winston kneels to TB 27 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.59 pts |
| Quick out | -1.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| QB keep | -1.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -2.71 pts |
| Curl route | -3.02 pts |
| End-around | -5.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.12 pts |
| Deep post | -8.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.95 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.