Colts vs Texans — Week 6, 2016
The Colts took over leading 23-16 with 2:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 23, Texans 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 21, 2:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.4% for Colts. Our model starts at 93.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:32) 23-F.Gore right tackle to IND 23 for 2 yards (51-J.Simon).
- (2:28) 12-A.Luck sacked at IND 11 for -7 yards (29-A.Hal).
- (2:22) 23-F.Gore left end to IND 10 for -1 yards (59-W.Mercilus).
- (2:00) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to HOU 41, Center-45-M.Overton. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 47 for 6 yards (53-E.Jackson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.20 pts |
| Outside run | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.58 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.05 pts |
| QB keep | -1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.70 pts |
| Curl route | -3.02 pts |
| End-around | -5.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.12 pts |
| Deep post | -8.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.