Colts vs Titans — Week 11, 2016
The Colts took over leading 24-17 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 24, Titans 17. Colts won 24-17 — the drive time expired.
Colts ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 19, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.6% for Colts. Our model starts at 93.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore right tackle to IND 24 for 5 yards (98-B.Orakpo).
- (2:39) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore right tackle to IND 24 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard; 54-A.Williamson).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton to IND 35 for 11 yards (54-A.Williamson).
- (2:00) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck kneels to IND 34 for -1 yards.
- (1:19) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck kneels to IND 33 for -1 yards.
- (:39) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck kneels to IND 32 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -1.05 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.11 pts |
| QB keep | -1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Play action | -2.74 pts |
| Curl route | -3.06 pts |
| End-around | -5.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.25 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.14 pts |
| Deep post | -8.80 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.