Packers vs Lions — Week 3, 2016
The Packers took over leading 34-27 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Packers 34, Lions 27. Packers won 34-27 — the drive time expired.
Packers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.0% for Packers. Our model starts at 92.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) 27-E.Lacy up the middle to GB 24 for -1 yards (91-A.Robinson).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy left tackle to GB 27 for 3 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end to GB 38 for 11 yards (31-R.Bush).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams to GB 47 for 9 yards (24-N.Lawson).
- (2:18) 27-E.Lacy left end to DET 44 for 9 yards (24-N.Lawson).
- (2:00) 12-A.Rodgers kneels to DET 45 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 12-A.Rodgers kneels to DET 46 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 12-A.Rodgers kneels to DET 47 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.26 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.59 pts |
| Quick out | -1.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| QB keep | -1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -2.68 pts |
| Curl route | -2.99 pts |
| End-around | -5.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.07 pts |
| Deep post | -8.69 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.