Eagles vs Commanders — Week 6, 2016
The Eagles took over trailing 27-20 with 4:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 20, Commanders 27. Commanders won 27-20 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 30, 4:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.7% for Eagles. Our model starts at 13.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 18-D.Green-Beckham (51-W.Compton). WAS-51-W.Compton was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 18-D.Green-Beckham [93-T.Murphy].
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles right tackle to PHI 36 for 1 yard (91-R.Kerrigan).
- (3:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 17-N.Agholor to WAS 46 for 18 yards (26-B.Breeland) [90-E.Hood].
- (2:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 43-D.Sproles to WAS 42 for 4 yards (54-M.Foster) [93-T.Murphy].
- (2:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 49 for -9 yards (99-R.Jean Francois).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 40 for -9 yards (sack split by 93-T.Murphy and 94-P.Smith).
- (1:44) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to WAS 23, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.92 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.65 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.62 pts |
| Deep post | +0.57 pts |
| QB keep | +0.53 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.69 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -1.02 pts |
| End-around | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
| Spike it | -1.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.