Bengals vs Ravens — Week 12, 2016
The Bengals took over trailing 19-12 with 4:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 14, Ravens 19. Ravens won 19-14 — the drive turnover.
Bengals ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 19, 4:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.7% for Bengals. Our model starts at 11.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:17) 33-R.Burkhead left guard to CIN 36 for 17 yards (32-E.Weddle).
- (3:43) 33-R.Burkhead right guard to CIN 40 for 4 yards (36-T.Young).
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 33-R.Burkhead right tackle pushed ob at CIN 47 for 7 yards (36-T.Young).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 32-J.Hill to BAL 45 for 8 yards (36-T.Young).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short middle to 85-T.Eifert (55-T.Suggs).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 36 for 9 yards (21-L.Webb).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Eifert (91-M.Judon).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 29 for 7 yards (21-L.Webb).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 11-B.LaFell (91-M.Judon).
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 85-T.Eifert pushed ob at BAL 16 for 13 yards (57-C.Mosley).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 83-T.Boyd.
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 83-T.Boyd (96-B.Urban).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.62 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.40 pts |
| Deep post | +0.38 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.36 pts |
| QB keep | +0.27 pts |
| Play action | +0.15 pts |
| Quick out | +0.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.08 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.69 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| End-around | -1.11 pts |
| Spike it | -1.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.