Broncos vs Chiefs — Week 12, 2016
The Broncos took over tied at 27 with 4:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 24, Chiefs 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive missed field goal.
Broncos ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 4:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.2% for Broncos. Our model starts at 54.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:19) 13-T.Siemian scrambles left end ran ob at DEN 33 for 8 yards.
- (4:09) 23-D.Booker left guard to DEN 39 for 6 yards (53-R.Wilson; 56-D.Johnson).
- (3:31) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Thomas.
- (3:27) 35-K.Bibbs left guard to DEN 46 for 7 yards (98-K.Reyes).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 83-A.Derby to KC 44 for 10 yards (27-K.Acker).
- (2:00) 35-K.Bibbs left tackle to KC 44 for no gain (56-D.Johnson).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short left (95-C.Jones).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right to 16-B.Fowler.
- (1:08) 8-B.McManus 62 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.91 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.91 pts |
| QB keep | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.38 pts |
| Curl route | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.06 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.20 pts |
| Play action | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.35 pts |
| End-around | -2.61 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Deep post | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.24 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.