Bills vs Bengals — Week 11, 2016
The Bills took over leading 16-12 with 4:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Bills 16, Bengals 12. Bills won 16-12 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 38, 4:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.3% for Bills. Our model starts at 83.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:14) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee right end to BUF 45 for 7 yards (21-D.Dennard).
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 31-J.Williams right guard to CIN 46 for 9 yards (24-A.Jones).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 31-J.Williams right tackle to CIN 39 for 7 yards (56-K.Dansby; 31-D.Smith).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee right end to CIN 39 for no gain (94-D.Peko; 55-V.Burfict).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 11-P.Harvin.
- (2:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 24 yards to CIN 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.75 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.75 pts |
| Outside run | +0.09 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.06 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| QB keep | -0.52 pts |
| Quick out | -0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.70 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Play action | -1.90 pts |
| Curl route | -1.94 pts |
| End-around | -4.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.32 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.05 pts |
| Deep post | -7.14 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.