Jaguars vs Colts — Week 4, 2016
The Jaguars took over leading 30-27 with 2:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 30, Colts 27. Jaguars won 30-27 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 18, 2:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.3% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 77.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:56) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 17-A.Benn pushed ob at JAX 19 for 1 yard (29-M.Adams).
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon right tackle to JAX 22 for 3 yards (93-E.Walden).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Lee (90-K.Langford).
- (2:41) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 78 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.86 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.86 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.01 pts |
| QB keep | -0.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Quick out | -0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.67 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.74 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.88 pts |
| Curl route | -1.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Play action | -1.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.77 pts |
| End-around | -3.92 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.41 pts |
| Deep post | -6.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.