Rams vs Dolphins — Week 11, 2016
The Rams took over leading 10-7 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Rams 10, Dolphins 14. Dolphins won 14-10 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.4% for Rams. Our model starts at 75.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:02) 30-T.Gurley up the middle to LA 30 for 5 yards (46-N.Hewitt).
- (3:16) 30-T.Gurley left tackle to LA 25 for no gain (42-S.Paysinger; 30-B.Rambo).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 83-B.Quick to LA 31 for 6 yards (36-T.Lippett) [24-I.Abdul-Quddus].
- (2:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to MIA 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.17 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.34 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| QB keep | -0.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.22 pts |
| Quick out | -0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.37 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Curl route | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Play action | -1.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.62 pts |
| End-around | -3.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.23 pts |
| Deep post | -5.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.17 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.