Colts vs Packers — Week 9, 2016
The Colts took over leading 31-26 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Colts 31, Packers 26. Colts won 31-26 — the drive time expired.
Colts ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.5% for Colts. Our model starts at 87.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) 23-F.Gore left tackle to IND 25 for no gain (98-L.Guion).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton.
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 84-J.Doyle to IND 45 for 20 yards (51-K.Fackrell).
- (3:07) 23-F.Gore up the middle to IND 47 for 2 yards (29-K.Brice).
- (2:25) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 13-T.Hilton ran ob at GB 47 for 6 yards.
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to GB 20 for 27 yards (36-L.Gunter).
- (2:00) 12-A.Luck kneels to GB 21 for -1 yards.
- (1:19) 12-A.Luck kneels to GB 22 for -1 yards.
- (:40) 12-A.Luck kneels to GB 23 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| QB keep | -0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.74 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -2.14 pts |
| Curl route | -2.27 pts |
| End-around | -4.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.40 pts |
| Deep post | -7.71 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.08 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.