Giants vs Eagles — Week 9, 2016
The Giants took over leading 28-23 with 3:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Giants 28, Eagles 23. Giants won 28-23 — the drive turnover.
Giants ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 12, 3:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.3% for Giants. Our model starts at 85.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:47) 28-P.Perkins left tackle to NYG 21 for 9 yards (23-R.McLeod).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 28-P.Perkins right guard to NYG 23 for 2 yards (26-J.Watkins).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 28-P.Perkins left guard to NYG 23 for no gain (58-J.Hicks).
- (2:00) 28-P.Perkins right guard to NYG 29 for 6 yards (58-J.Hicks, 91-F.Cox).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 45-W.Tye INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hicks (98-C.Barwin) at NYG 37. 58-J.Hicks to NYG 34 for 3 yards (45-W.Tye).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.81 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.97 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.48 pts |
| Quick out | -1.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.60 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.61 pts |
| QB keep | -1.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.76 pts |
| Play action | -2.75 pts |
| Curl route | -2.90 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.96 pts |
| End-around | -5.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.74 pts |
| Deep post | -7.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.