Colts vs Bears — Week 5, 2016
The Colts took over leading 26-23 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at the Bears 29, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Colts 29, Bears 23. Colts won 29-23 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Bears territory, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 88.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore right guard to CHI 29 for 5 yards (97-W.Young).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore up the middle to CHI 23 for 6 yards (50-J.Freeman).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete deep right to 15-P.Dorsett (22-C.LeBlanc).
- (2:33) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.93 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.64 pts |
| Outside run | +0.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Inside run | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.67 pts |
| QB keep | -0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Play action | -2.14 pts |
| Curl route | -2.29 pts |
| Field goal | -2.79 pts |
| End-around | -4.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.42 pts |
| Deep post | -7.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.93 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.