Falcons vs Packers — Week 8, 2016
The Falcons took over trailing 32-26 with 3:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 33, Packers 32. Falcons won 33-32 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.5% for Falcons. Our model starts at 15.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:58) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 34 for 9 yards (48-J.Thomas).
- (3:32) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 16-J.Hardy to ATL 47 for 13 yards (39-D.Goodson).
- (3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 12-M.Sanu (36-L.Gunter).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman to GB 45 for 8 yards (36-L.Gunter).
- (2:37) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu pushed ob at GB 33 for 12 yards (33-M.Hyde). GB-36-L.Gunter was injured during the play.
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu to GB 24 for 9 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman to GB 23 for 1 yard (48-J.Thomas).
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones (36-L.Gunter).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu pushed ob at GB 14 for 9 yards (39-D.Goodson).
- (1:14) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper to GB 11 for 3 yards (50-B.Martinez).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.72 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.70 pts |
| QB keep | +0.60 pts |
| Deep post | +0.56 pts |
| Play action | +0.39 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| End-around | -1.22 pts |
| Spike it | -1.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.