Vikings vs Cardinals — Week 11, 2016
The Vikings took over leading 30-24 with 4:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 30, Cardinals 24. Vikings won 30-24 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 9, 4:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.6% for Vikings. Our model starts at 87.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:07) 44-M.Asiata up the middle to MIN 10 for 1 yard (51-K.Minter).
- (3:26) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short right to 85-R.Ellison [92-F.Rucker].
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to MIN 15 for 10 yards (36-D.Swearinger).
- (2:33) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 72 yards to ARI 13, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-40-K.Brothers.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.72 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.26 pts |
| Quick out | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.57 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.79 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Play action | -3.09 pts |
| Curl route | -3.32 pts |
| End-around | -5.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.11 pts |
| Deep post | -8.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.77 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.